| 24.02.06
:: Terrence Aschoff, Manager CHRANZ
The Centre for Housing Research, Aotearoa New Zealand (CHRANZ) and Building Research have released research from Scion and BRANZ that investigates the future of housing in New Zealand in 2030. The project was jointly funded by CHRANZ and Building Research (from the Building Research Levy).
The authors, Susan Bates and Chris Kane, said “This futures research uses scenario planning techniques to test the outer limits of current thinking on future housing options in New Zealand for 2030. These housing scenarios are not predictions but alternative future situations in which today’s decisions might be played out.”
The key points include:
- Five housing scenarios depict stories about everyday life in 2030: moving between regions for work necessitated by regional economic decline; deferred nurturers with student debt who have a “disposable house” on leased land; life in a multi-unit high-rise complex in the central city with better access to work; life in a gated “safe” community where people share the same religious values; and life in rental accommodation on a benefit after a breakdown and job loss.
- The predictable key drivers common to all the scenarios are: the advent of new technologies and solutions; more mass-produced/factory housing; capability changes within the construction industry; an increase in the number of households relative to the population; ageing of the population; climate change; the need to address the quality of existing housing; and regulatory changes in the New Zealand building industry.
- The points of difference between the scenarios arise from four clusters of critical uncertainties: regional economics and communities; changing aspirations and attitudes, house maintenance, durability and economic lifetime; resource availability and price, transport and infrastructure; and demographics, communities and attitudes.
- This research sets the stage for active involvement in decisions about future housing options across a wide range of stakeholders including home owners, policy makers, local and central government, the building industry and banks.
- The authors recommend the next step is to tease out where we need to be in 5-10 years’ time.
A full copy of the research report is available online. A copy of the CHRANZ Research Bulletin is available online.
For further information please contact:
Terrence Aschoff
CHRANZ
terrence.aschoff@chranz.co.nz
DDI: 04 439 3326
or
Susan Bates
Scion
susan.bates@scionresearch.com
Phone: 07 343 5895
or
Chris Kane
BRANZ
ChrisKane@branz.co.nz
Phone: 04 238 1372
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